Is Glavine the last of a dying breed?

Baseball Betting Lines

08/06/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Glavine closed out one of the most memorable milestone weekends in recent history, with a feat that may not be seen again for a very long time.

Glavine became the 23rd pitcher and just the fifth left-hander in major league history to reach 300 wins on Sunday at Wrigley Field, and there is a good chance that he may be the last player of this or any other generation to reach the plateau.

Only the 11th pitcher in the last 60 years and just the fourth since 1990 to reach the milestone, Glavine held the Chicago Cubs to just two runs and six hits over 6 1/3 innings in an 8-3 Mets' win.

Unlike last week in Milwaukee, New York's bullpen came through, as it secured the 41-year-old hurler's fifth win in his last six decisions, making him the first pitcher to reach the magical number since his former teammate and good friend Greg Maddux won his 300th game in 2004 while with the Cubs.

Glavine's consistency over the years has been incredible. It took him about eight seasons to get to 100, seven to get to 200, and eight to get to 300. Plus, he was a 20 game-winner five times (another of the dying breeds by the way) while accumulating 17 double-digit win seasons.

Now the question is, will Glavine be the last to do it?

Arizona left-hander Randy Johnson has 284 victories, but his season was recently cut short due to back surgery and at the age of 43, his career could very well be over.

Of the other active pitchers with 200 wins, 300 is pretty much out of reach. Mike Mussina has 246 wins at the age of 38, but watching him pitch this season, you are not going to find anyone who thinks there are another 54 victories left in that right arm.

Pedro Martinez is the youngest of the active 200-game winners, but who knows how much he has left in the tank at age 35, not to mention that he has still yet to return from offseason shoulder surgery. Even if he is the pitcher he once was, he still has nearly 100 wins to go before he reaches 300.

Most people agree that either Johan Santana or Carlos Zambrano are the best pitchers in baseball today. Santana has 89 wins at age 28, and the Big Z has racked up 78 victories at the age of 26. Glavine had 95 wins before he turned 29, but can you see Zambrano pitching into his 40's like Glavine? Me neither.

Santana is a free agent after next season, and he will likely end up with a team that is a perennial playoff contender. So double-digit win seasons won't be out of the question for him. Think about it, though. If he pitches another 12 years, until the age of 40, he would still have to average close to 18 wins a season in that time.

I guess it's possible, I just don't like the chances, since he has only reached that number twice (20 - 2003, 19 - 2006) in his career and probably won't come close to it this season.

Not to mention the injury factor. Pitchers are always one start away from having to go under the knife. Santana has been pretty durable over the course of his career, but who knows what the future holds for him? If you remember, Ken Griffey Jr. was a "lock" to challenge Hank Aaron's home run record way back when too.

Taking everything into consideration, the player with the best shot to get there is probably Cleveland Indians' ace C.C. Sabathia, who already has 95 wins at age 26, 22 more than Glavine had at his age.

Sabathia, though, has never struck me as that type of pitcher. I guess you can make the argument he is just entering his prime. He has always had "Cy Young" stuff, but for whatever reason it never translated on the field. Injuries played a part, and his work ethic has been questioned.

Maybe he is finally maturing. Sabathia entered this spring in the best shape of his career, and has been the AL's best pitcher from day one. But can he continue to do it over the next 14 or 15 seasons?

I guess you can never say never, but with the way pitching staffs are assembled and the way the game is played today, starting pitchers just don't rack up the wins like they once did. I hate to say it, but on Sunday night, we may have seen our last 300-game winner.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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