King Felix goes for M's in series capper with Tribe

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Felix Hernandez will attempt to atone for a recent loss to the Cleveland Indians and help the Seattle Mariners earn a split of a four- game series with that above-mentioned opponent when the ace pitcher toes the rubber this afternoon at Safeco Field.

Hernandez's only setback over his past five starts took place against the Indians in Cleveland on August 15. The All-Star right-hander had a shutout after six innings of that contest, but was tagged for six runs -- all of which were unearned due to an error by teammate Chone Figgins -- in the seventh and served up a game-breaking grand slam to the Tribe's Travis Hafner.

The 24-year-old has bounced back quite well from that performance, however. Hernandez yielded just two runs -- one earned -- over a combined 15 1/3 innings in back-to-back road victories over the New York Yankees and Boston in his next two starts, then delivered seven scoreless frames in a tough-luck no- decision against the Angels on Tuesday.

Over his last five assignments, Hernandez has let up a mere one earned run and struck out 47 batters over 37 innings while posting a 3-1 record. His 2.38 ERA and 200 strikeouts for the season are both the second-best marks in the American League.

The native Venezuelan, who sports a 2.29 ERA at Safeco Field this year, is 3-3 with a 3.22 ERA in five career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland has won two of the first three tests of this September set between last-place teams and came through with a 4-2 decision on Saturday behind 6 2/3 strong innings from starting pitcher Mitch Talbot (9-11). The rookie right- hander yielded just one unearned run and struck out six Mariners to end a nine-start winless streak in which he went 0-5.

"It was nice to see Talbot come back and have a good outing," Indians manager Manny Acta said. "He's been struggling a little bit since he came back from the DL. [Saturday] he was very good, threw a lot of first pitch strikes, had that good changeup and a good cutter and gave us seven solid innings."

Cleveland gave Talbot an early cushion by scoring four unanswered runs off Seattle starter David Pauley over the game's first four innings, with Hafner, Asdrubral Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Brantley all coming through with RBI singles.

Pauley (2-7) did last six innings and surrendered the four runs on seven hits while striking out five.

"I think Pauley wasn't as sharp as he has been," said Mariners manager Daren Brown. "I thought he left some pitches in the middle of the plate, he had trouble getting his breaking balls over early and they just sat on the fastball and took the sinker away from him."

Ex-Indian Russell Branyan had a solo homer for Seattle, his second of the series, and finished 2-for-3 in Saturday's loss.

Acta will hand the ball to Jeanmar Gomez in this afternoon's finale, with the rookie filling in for originally-scheduled starter Justin Masterson due to the latter having to attend to a family matter.

Gomez has made seven starts for the Indians this season and gone 3-2 with a very respectable 3.08 ERA, though he's 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA over his last three times out. The young right-hander did pitch decent in an August 28 matchup against Kansas City, allowing two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings while not receiving a decision in his team's 4-3 win.

This will be the first-ever appearance against Seattle for Gomez, who's just 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts on the road this year.

Though these teams have split six meetings this season, Cleveland has taken seven of its last eight games against the Mariners held in Safeco Field.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.